Op Lighting (603515) Quarterly Commentary: Operating Situation at the Bottom Looks for Progressive Improvement
Core point of view: Due to the company’s internal personnel adjustments and the impact of real estate, the third quarter of 2019 revenues decreased. The company achieved total operating income of 57 in the first three quarters of 2019.
700 million (+3 year-on-year.
3%), gross profit of 21.
0 million yuan (YoY + 1.
7%), gross profit margin 36.
5pct), net profit attributable to mother 6.
0 billion (+ 5% year-on-year.
6%) and a net interest rate of 10.
4% (+0 year-on-year.
2 pct), net profit after deduction is 4
200 million (+4 year-on-year.
Q3 single quarter total operating income 19.
90,000 yuan (YoY-3.
3%), gross profit 7.
400 million (-0 year-on-year.
8%), gross profit margin 37.
0% (+0 year-on-year.
9 pct), net profit attributable to mother 2.
0 million yuan (YoY-7.
0%), net interest rate 9.
4pct), deducting non-returning mother’s net profit 1.
600 million (+7 year-on-year.
Q3’s single-quarter revenue decreased. We believe that it was mainly caused by the change in the growth rate of household business income. Specifically: 1) Land demand tended to be weak and the industry growth rate changed; 2) The company’s internal management staff was adjusted, resulting in a short-term domestic businessAre adversely affected.
The profitability of Q3 increased, so the net profit of returning mothers after deductions is growing faster than the income growth, but the net profit returning to mothers is gradually replaced, mainly affected by the pace of government subsidy release. Specifically, in 2018, 35.4 million government subsidies were received.The government subsidy for 2019Q3 is 2.39 million yuan.
The operating situation is at the bottom. It is expected to gradually improve in the short term. The improvement, the real estate business is affected by the breakthrough, which has led to the acceleration of the overall revenue growth. However, the company has taken corresponding measures: to cultivate offline dealers from “dealers” to “dealers”.The company ‘s ability to change, continue to improve the standardization of store operations, promote the improvement 杭州桑拿 of store operation efficiency, and accelerate the recovery of future revenue growth. Gradually, the company’s gradual adjustment has been completed. At present, the home furnishing business is in the recovery stage and gradually improves.
In the long run, the rapid growth of the industry is conducive to the reshuffle of the industry and the promotion of the concentration of the lighting industry. As the B2C leader in the lighting industry, the company’s scale has continued to increase; at the same time, the company has actively expanded the business field and overseas markets to promoteThe company brings new growth.
Profit forecast We believe that the future consumption upgrade trend will continue and the market concentration of the lighting industry will continue to increase. As a leading domestic lighting company, the company is actively expanding household and commercial channels. The future market growth is expected to continue to increase and its performance will promote good growth.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent for 2019-2021 will be 8.
8 ppm, an increase of -5 in ten years.
3%.The latest closing price corresponds to PE 20 in 2020.
3 times, referring to home furnishings. Kitchen appliances companies have 15 times PE estimates in 2020. However, as a leader in the lighting industry, the company has a solid level and a competitive distribution pattern.Annual PE 21x, corresponding to a reasonable value of 26.
46 yuan / share, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk reminders: original substantial price increase; substantial growth in the real estate market; deteriorating competition environment in the industry leading to price wars; weak overall consumer demand; the company’s channel expansion has fallen short of expectations.