Op Lighting (603515) Quarterly Commentary: Operating Situation at the Bottom Looks for Progressive Improvement

Op Lighting (603515) Quarterly Commentary: Operating Situation at the Bottom Looks for Progressive Improvement

Core point of view: Due to the company’s internal personnel adjustments and the impact of real estate, the third quarter of 2019 revenues decreased. The company achieved total operating income of 57 in the first three quarters of 2019.

700 million (+3 year-on-year.

3%), gross profit of 21.

0 million yuan (YoY + 1.

7%), gross profit margin 36.

4% (YoY-0.

5pct), net profit attributable to mother 6.

0 billion (+ 5% year-on-year.

6%) and a net interest rate of 10.

4% (+0 year-on-year.

2 pct), net profit after deduction is 4

200 million (+4 year-on-year.


Q3 single quarter total operating income 19.

90,000 yuan (YoY-3.

3%), gross profit 7.

400 million (-0 year-on-year.

8%), gross profit margin 37.

0% (+0 year-on-year.

9 pct), net profit attributable to mother 2.

0 million yuan (YoY-7.

0%), net interest rate 9.

9% (YoY-0.

4pct), deducting non-returning mother’s net profit 1.

600 million (+7 year-on-year.


Q3’s single-quarter revenue decreased. We believe that it was mainly caused by the change in the growth rate of household business income. Specifically: 1) Land demand tended to be weak and the industry growth rate changed; 2) The company’s internal management staff was adjusted, resulting in a short-term domestic businessAre adversely affected.

The profitability of Q3 increased, so the net profit of returning mothers after deductions is growing faster than the income growth, but the net profit returning to mothers is gradually replaced, mainly affected by the pace of government subsidy release. Specifically, in 2018, 35.4 million government subsidies were received.The government subsidy for 2019Q3 is 2.39 million yuan.

The operating situation is at the bottom. It is expected to gradually improve in the short term. The improvement, the real estate business is affected by the breakthrough, which has led to the acceleration of the overall revenue growth. However, the company has taken corresponding measures: to cultivate offline dealers from “dealers” to “dealers”.The company ‘s ability to change, continue to improve the standardization of store operations, promote the improvement 杭州桑拿 of store operation efficiency, and accelerate the recovery of future revenue growth. Gradually, the company’s gradual adjustment has been completed. At present, the home furnishing business is in the recovery stage and gradually improves.

In the long run, the rapid growth of the industry is conducive to the reshuffle of the industry and the promotion of the concentration of the lighting industry. As the B2C leader in the lighting industry, the company’s scale has continued to increase; at the same time, the company has actively expanded the business field and overseas markets to promoteThe company brings new growth.

Profit forecast We believe that the future consumption upgrade trend will continue and the market concentration of the lighting industry will continue to increase. As a leading domestic lighting company, the company is actively expanding household and commercial channels. The future market growth is expected to continue to increase and its performance will promote good growth.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent for 2019-2021 will be 8.

5, 9.

6, 10.

8 ppm, an increase of -5 in ten years.

7%, 12.

5%, 13.

3%.The latest closing price corresponds to PE 20 in 2020.

3 times, referring to home furnishings. Kitchen appliances companies have 15 times PE estimates in 2020. However, as a leader in the lighting industry, the company has a solid level and a competitive distribution pattern.Annual PE 21x, corresponding to a reasonable value of 26.

46 yuan / share, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminders: original substantial price increase; substantial growth in the real estate market; deteriorating competition environment in the industry leading to price wars; weak overall consumer demand; the company’s channel expansion has fallen short of expectations.

China International Travel Service (601888) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Focusing on Tax-Exempt Business’s Third Quarterly Performance

China International Travel Service (601888) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Focusing on Tax-Exempt Business’s Third Quarterly Performance

Event: On October 30, China National Tourism Administration released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 355 in the third quarter before 2019.

8.4 billion, an annual increase of 4.

35%; net profit attributable 西安耍耍网 to mother 41.

960,000 yuan, an increase of 55 in ten years.

09%; net profit deduction for non-attribution to 34 was realized.

170,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.


The company achieved the highest yield2.

15 yuan.

  Investment points: The company divested the travel agency business from February 2019. As the travel agency business is an asset-heavy, labor-intensive, low-margin, and low-growth business, from the perspective of financial indicators, replacing the travel agency business is beneficial to the improvement of the company’s financial indicators.

The growth rate of the company’s operating income is forecast, and the growth of gross profit margin has increased. The company’s gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2019 was 51.

16%, compared with 41 in the same period last year.

苏州桑拿网38%, an increase of 9.


From an operational perspective, focusing on tax-exempt business and seizing the changes in the era of consumption upgrades and consumer refunds will promote the company’s further development.

  The report summarizes that the actual controller of the company, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, transferred 10% of the company’s controlling shareholder, China Tourism Group, to the Social Security Foundation for free.

This transfer is in accordance with the State Council’s “Implementation Plan for Transferring Part of Domestic Capital to Enrich Social Security Funds” and is an important substitute for strengthening the construction of the social security system.

The transfer did not change the actual controller of the company.

Social security funds accepting state-owned enterprises ‘equity can realize diversification of state-owned enterprises’ equity, improve corporate governance, and help explore the establishment of a reasonable dividend mechanism for traditional equity.

  Shopping festivals such as “Double 11” in the market competition have impacted tax-free sales, but we are optimistic.

Firstly, the e-commerce shopping festival has a long history. For example, Tmall’s “Double 11” is the 11th this year. The popular scene of “Double 11” in previous years can not affect the high annual growth of tax-free sales. Second, the pulse type of the e-commerce shopping festival.Impulse consumption and tax-free consumption have consumer decision-making methods and the essential differences in shopping patterns. Tax-free shopping is based on accompanying shopping with entry-exit behaviors, the increase in the number of entry-exit populations, the increase in tax-free penetration, and the increase in per capita tax-free consumption.Change, the logic of tax-free consumption growth will not change; again, in the national policy framework that encourages consumption, tax-free bears the responsibility of guiding the return of consumption, in other words, the direct entry of China-Exempt is to overseas travel retailers, not domestic onesIn this sense, the e-commerce platform is a complementary “comrade-in-arms” relationship between China Exemption and domestic e-commerce.

  The company will invest 128.

The first phase of the construction of the Haikou International Duty-Free City Project of 600 million US dollars, including the first phase of a tax-free commercial complex, apartments and residential buildings, will be completed in 2022.

This investment scale budget, but because of the phased expenditure, rolling development, and real estate projects are expected to quickly withdraw funds, the overall funding pressure is less.

In 2018, Haikou / Sanya ‘s tax-free income accounted for 7% / 15% of the total tourism revenue. After the project is completed, it is expected that the scale of Haikou ‘s outlying islands ‘tax-free income will improve.

  According to the latest Moddie Davitt report, in 2018 the global travel retailer ranked fourth in the rankings, up four places after Dufry, Rakuten and Silla.

The company’s tax-exempt business has developed steadily, and its proportion in the domestic tax-exempt market has continued to increase.

Duty-free shops in Beijing, Dalian, Qingdao, Xiamen, and Shanghai for overseas tourists have been opened one after another. Among them, Shanghai shops are expected to open to domestic shop bookings for Chinese people, airport payment pickup services, and city shop policies are expected to make breakthroughs.The increase in competition revenue has significantly improved the company’s performance.

The company vigorously promotes international expansion, and the territory of tax-free business is expected to continue to expand.

The company’s EPS is expected to be 2 in 2019 and 2020, respectively.


61 yuan, corresponding to PE is 35/30 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

  Risk reminders: 1) International political security situation affects inbound and outbound tourism; 2) RMB exchange rate conversion; 3) Hainan outlying island tax-free passenger flow growth is less than expected; 4) Newly opened airport store sales are less than expected.

Gemdale Group (600383): Focus on the first and second lines to deeply cultivate the metropolitan area

Gemdale Group (600383): Focus on the first and second lines to deeply cultivate the metropolitan area
It is estimated that there is still room for large companies with high dividend potential to revalue their net assets to 16.36 yuan / share. In 2019, dynamic PE has a significant advantage over comparable companies. 深圳桑拿网 If the average dynamic PE of comparable companies is estimated, the corresponding value can be 14.1 Yuan.According to the principle of prudence, we believe that the reasonable and reasonable estimate is 14 to 16 yuan, which corresponds to the current expectation of 11% -26%. For four consecutive years from 2015 to 2018, the cash dividend rate reached more than 30%, and the static dividend rate ranked among the top of mainstream A-share real estate stocks (2018 dividends / closing price on October 28, 2019). Residential development still has room for restraint, and the core metropolitan area is the future development direction. Taking into account the urbanization process, improving demand, population growth and supply gap, it is estimated that commercial residential development accounts for about 28 billion square meters 武汉夜生活网 (244 trillion) of market space.According to international experience and objective laws, the formation of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations will become an important platform to support economic growth, promote regional coordinated development, and participate in international competition and cooperation. Focusing on core metropolitan areas will become a key direction for China’s real estate development in the future. The company is deeply cultivating the metropolitan area, and the resource endowment is continuously optimized. ① The company insists on focusing on the first and second-tier cities, and has now achieved full coverage of the core metropolitan area and its key cities. Until the first half of 2019, the soil reserves of the first and second-tier cities accounted for about 80%.② Since 2019, the company has maintained steady expansion, strengthened non-cyclical investment, and the proportion of land acquisition rights has increased significantly. ③ The company has benefited significantly from the key layout of the first- and second-tier cities. The property market has rebounded significantly. From January to September 2019, the company temporarily shortenedThe value-added rate reached 34%, ranking the forefront of the industry. With high dividend potential, profitability transfer, and financial stability ①The company has always aimed at stable returns to investors, and its cash dividend rate has reached 30% for four consecutive years from 2015 to 2018; ② Strong profitability, and its net profit margin is mainstream in A sharesReal estate companies ranked first; ROE remained high; financing costs remained at 4.8% mean level.③Financially sound, financial indicators such as the asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio, and short-term debt repayment ability after excluding advance receipts have remained at a high level in the industry. Risk warning If the actual real estate exceeds expectations, the company’s future sales will be lower than expected, which will lead to the risk of overestimation of the company’s estimates and profit forecasts. It has the characteristics of “underestimation + double growth” and maintains the “buy” rating. Companies benefit from the recovery of the property market in the first and second tiers and core metropolitan areas and achieve higher sales growth. Continuously strengthen non-cyclical investments and significantly increase the proportion of land acquisition rights. FinanceSteady, better performance lock-in, EPS is expected to be 2 in 19-21.15/2.52/2.91 yuan, 18% annual compound strength, corresponding to PE 5.9/5.0/4.3x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Funeng shares (600483) 2018 annual report comment: Six branches of plants have made significant contributions and the company’s performance inflection point has reached

Funeng shares (600483) 2018 annual report comment: Six branches of plants have made significant contributions and the company’s performance inflection point has reached
The company disclosed the 2018 annual report: realized operating income of 93.5.3 billion (+37.57%), net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies10.500 million (+24.52%), where Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 are 2 respectively.11, 1.96, 3.31 and 3.1.3 billion, the company’s net profit attributable to the mother after making up for non-recurring gains and losses is 10.3.7 billion (+29.53%), with a budget benefit of zero.68 yuan / share (+25.93%), with an expected average ROE of 9.65% (+1.44pct). The performance of the thermal power business improved significantly, mainly due to the consolidation of Liuzhi Power Plant.Reporting information, the company’s coal-fired power generation business revenue was 40.5.7 billion, an annual increase of 102.75%; cost is 33.59 million, up 108 every year.25%; gross profit is 6.980,000 yuan, an annual increase of 79.9%.The increase in performance was attributed to the consolidated coal-fired power generation of Liuzhi Power Plant (136.(4.1 billion kilowatt-hours) rose 112% in ten years.The company’s gas power business revenue was 25.79 ppm, an increase of 17 per year.71%; cost is 23.93 ppm, an increase of 14 per year.77%; gross profit is 1.860,000 yuan, an increase of 75 per year.47%.The outstanding growth in performance is due to the gas kWh (0.5118 yuan / kWh) increased by 10 every year.22%, referring to the unit cost of gas power (0.4749 yuan / kWh) increase (+7.47%) is even more pronounced, with a gross profit (0.0369 yuan / kilowatt-hour) previously increased significantly by 64.31%. The decline in wind power business performance was mainly due to the decrease in utilization hours and the increase in electricity cost.Reporting information, the company’s wind power business revenue was 9.400 million, down 1 year.47%; cost is 3.34 ppm, an increase of 8 per year.09%; gross profit is 6.0.6 billion, down 6 every year.05%.There are two main reasons for the significant increase in performance. First, although the company’s installed wind power capacity has increased (+7.53%), but the number of wind power utilization hours (2692H) has decreased by 5 due to wind energy resource problems.11% resulted in electricity generation (18.6.5 billion kWh) decreased by 1% a year; the second is the company’s wind power cost (0.1829 yuan / kilowatt-hour) increased by 9 per year.2% of the electricity gross margin (0.3319 yuan / kilowatt hour) decreased by 5 every year.08%. The growth of heating business performance was mainly due to the significant increase in supply.Reporting information, the company’s heating business revenue was 7.800 million, an annual increase of 33.33%; cost is 6.1.9 billion, an increase of 34 every year.28%; gross profit is 1.600 million, an increase of 29 every year.81%.The main reason for the increase in performance was that the supply variable (531 revenue) exceeded expectations by 30.38%.The heating unit price is 146.92 yuan / ton, up 2 before.26%; unit cost is 116.71 yuan / ton, up 2 before.99%; unit gross profit is 30.21 yuan / ton, down by 0 in the past.44%, profitability has improved. Management expenses and financial expenses increased significantly.The total number of reports, the company management cost is 1.830,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.62%, mainly due to the newly added consolidated data of the subsidiary’s Liuzhi plant in the reporting period, and the new power generation projects were gradually transferred to solid operation; the financial cost was 4.07 million yuan, a significant increase of 60 per year.08%, mainly due to the increase in the reporting period and consolidation of related data of the subsidiary’s Liuzhi factory and the increase in the scale of external financing in the current period, and interest expenses increased accordingly. Analysis of the impact of the recently introduced highest policy on the company’s wind power business.At present, the company has 75 wind power projects in operation.40,000 KW, inverter land wind power project; the wind power project under construction is Dingyanshan project (48MW, approved in March 2015, under construction), Panzhai project (86MW, approved in January 2016, under construction), ShichengOffshore wind power project (200MW, approved in October 2018, construction started in December of the same year), Putian Pinghai Bay F area offshore wind power project (200MW, approved in May 2017, started construction in August 2018), Changle Offshore Offshore Wind Power Project (498MW, approved in January 2019, not yet started). “Notice of the General Department of the National Energy Administration on Reporting the List of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Divided Online Items in 2019”: Encourage existing projects to be voluntarily converted to low-cost on-line projects, and the power of affordable projects shall be preferentially consumed online.Considering the wind power consumption rate of Fujian Province in recent years, the wind power consumption rate has approached 100%, so it is unlikely that the company’s existing projects will be converted into parity projects. “Notice 武汉夜网论坛 on related requirements for wind power and photovoltaic power generation construction management in 2019 (draft for comments)”: (1) Relevant to wind power projects that have not started construction nor applied for extension within two years of approval or have applied for extension but have not yet started construction.The approval document was abolished.The owners of the company’s wind power projects are under construction except the Changle Offshore Project. The Changle Offshore Project has been approved for less than two years and is not part of this part. Therefore, the company is unlikely to be affected by this policy.(2) In 2018, for offshore wind power projects that have not entered the scope of national supplementation and determined on-grid electricity prices through competition, their approval documents cannot be used as a basis for enjoying state subsidies.Since the company’s Changle Offshore Project was approved in January 2019 and belongs to the scale stipulated by this policy, it may be possible to re-determine the on-grid tariff in the future. Earnings forecast and estimation: We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2019/20/21 of 15 respectively.39/20.94/26.09 million yuan, equivalent to EPS are 0.99/1.35/1.68 yuan / share, currently 10.02 yuan, corresponding to 10 PE.07/7.4/5.94 times, maintaining the company’s “Buy” rating. Risk warning: uncertainty of the prices of coal, natural gas and other raw materials; uncertainty of wind power supplementary policies; uncertainty of wind power utilization hours.

Shanghai Construction Engineering (600170): Construction business drives company revenue and profits continue to grow

Shanghai Construction Engineering (600170): Construction business drives company revenue and profits continue to grow

Shanghai Construction Engineering released the 2019 Interim Report: 2019H1 company achieved operating income of 1035.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.


Among them, Q1 and Q2 achieved operating income of 471 respectively.

00 ppm, 564.

2 billion, an annual increase of 51.

57%, 19.

46%; construction and real estate development respectively achieved income of 838.

6.6 billion, 70.

4杭州桑拿 .5 billion, an increase of 41 each year.

10%, -27.

28%, revenue from construction business accounted for 81.

47%, an increase of 5 over the same period last year.

11pct, the share of real estate business revenue decreased by 5 compared with the first half of last year.

61 points.

The company’s new contract value for 2019H1 is gradually 1720.

$ 1.9 billion, an increase of 19.


Among them, the construction construction business accounted for 80 in the new millennium.

56%, an increase of 2 a year.

64pct, while real estate pre-sale has expanded significantly.

The company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 9 in 2019H1.

24%, compared with 0 for the same period last year.

75pct, with the exception of the real estate business, the gross profit margin of most businesses has been replaced.

The company’s construction and real estate business gross margins were 6 respectively.

41%, 29.

79%, respectively increased by -0.

96pct and 12.

54pct, the proportion of profit side is 56.

5% and 21.


The company achieved net profit of 2 in 2019H1.

21%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.

27pct, mainly due to the significant increase in net income from changes in fair value.

In the first half of the year, the company’s expenses accounted for 6.

29%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.

20pct, the financial assets measured at fair value increased by about 7 in the first half of the year.

05 ppm, the ratio to income is 0.68%, a significant increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.

69pct, which is the biggest reason why the company’s gross profit margin increased but its net profit margin increased.

The company’s 2019H1 net cash flow from operations was -1.

44 yuan, down by 0 every year.

02 yuan / share.

From the perspective of the cash-to-cash ratio, the company’s cash-to-cash ratio for 2019H1 is 98.

31%, 103.

56%, compared with the same period of the previous year2.

67, 7.

09 points.

Earnings forecast and rating: We adjusted the company’s EPS 无锡桑拿网for 2019-2021 to 0.

43 yuan, 0.

47 yuan, 0.

53 yuan, the corresponding PE on August 30 closing price is 8.

4, 7.


7x, maintaining the rating of “prudent increase”.

Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risks, orders in hand fall below expectations, new orders miss expectations